Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 2.211689 2.983658 4.060835 5.721943 8.310914e+00 12.361247 19.552023
2025-02-16 1.463185 2.259651 3.590389 6.141502 1.136149e+01 22.823285 54.847165
2025-02-23 0.972048 1.657246 2.969840 5.975599 1.382000e+01 38.052354 155.020303
2025-03-02 0.659683 1.213273 2.394691 5.534671 1.575757e+01 60.566092 495.306597
2025-03-09 0.510080 1.013586 2.217083 5.991471 2.204716e+01 136.789203 4576.633835
2025-03-16 0.400069 0.849117 2.034416 6.368272 3.057251e+01 345.557598 384764.703012
2025-03-23 0.327096 0.738713 1.934700 7.050857 4.592147e+01 1246.243950 NaN
2025-03-30 0.270061 0.643712 1.826320 7.689933 6.918945e+01 6816.394597 NaN
2025-04-06 0.214513 0.529724 1.586113 7.393691 8.549460e+01 37239.540341 NaN
2025-04-13 0.170443 0.432074 1.347408 6.799400 9.710006e+01 307731.774276 NaN
2025-04-20 0.146127 0.384531 1.272117 7.233425 1.462188e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.129724 0.355437 1.255382 8.197494 2.616050e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.116578 0.333951 1.270099 9.780591 5.933086e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.101774 0.300980 1.208566 10.568723 1.160716e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.086399 0.260357 1.080027 10.220073 1.718628e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.072787 0.221908 0.939485 9.350719 2.126660e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.065375 0.204733 0.908994 10.213382 5.413892e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.058702 0.188149 0.870986 10.930653 1.551307e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.053706 0.176646 0.857407 12.259390 8.802833e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.049128 0.165319 0.837255 13.522197 1.216780e+06 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.043497 0.147699 0.760820 12.918039 6.877667e+06 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.038246 0.130364 0.676380 11.733500 1.848521e+07 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.035271 0.122329 0.656028 12.583253 NaN NaN NaN